Harrison Coerver, my Race for Relevance co-author, is tracking recovery COVID-19 economic indicators. Here are a few:
- According to the International Air Transport Association, revenue per kilometers will still be 10% below where they were projected to be in 2025 in pre-Covid forecasts.
- The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Annual Report “Fuel consumption in the aviation sector won’t surpass pre-coronavirus levels until closer to 2025.” (Both this and the bullet above are for international travel; domestic is expected to rebound a year or more earlier.)
- Broadway theaters have pushed back their re-opening to May 30, 2021.
- MGM has delayed the new James Bond movie again. It was to come out in Dec 2019, then delayed to April 2020, then delayed to Nov 2020 and now delayed again to April 2021.
- In response to an “increasingly challenging theatrical landscape and sustained key market closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic,” Regal Theaters (#2 theatre chain) temporarily closed all its theaters.
- Luxury sales expected to take three years to recover to pre-pandemic levels. (Luxury sales defined as apparel, accessories, jewelry, etc. from the likes of Hermes, Dior, Gucci, etc.)
- Target, Slack, Ford, and Discover don’t plan to return to the office until June of 2021. Google’s return-to-office date is July 2021.
The above tracks with an informal poll recently conducted at ASAE’s Exceptional Boards program. We asked participants when they anticipate their first face-to-face meeting with one hundred or more individuals will be. The majority indicated the third or fourth quarter of 2021.
What’s all of this imply? The short answer is that we’re in for a long recovery. If this is true, what does it mean for your association? I’m guessing you’ve already started this conversation. If not, now is the time. Your answer will determine your go-forward strategy. And going forward is the work we are in collectively right now. We will prevail.